Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #55

That’s a lot of cars sold last month and those Android numbers are huge (though misleading too).  The air pollution has been pretty horribad this past week, had to stay indoors nearly everyday.

Thanks to James M for some links.

Send to Kindle

Science & Technology Roundup: #4

I’ve heard “graphene” is the savior of the semiconductor industry for over five years now.  I’ll believe it when I see it.  The age article is interesting too.

Send to Kindle

Science & Technology Roundup: #3

Several neat publications and announcements — can’t wait for Bluetooth 4.1 (and USB 3.1) to make it into consumer gear in the next year.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #54

The biggest news this past week has been the huge rise in cryptocurrency prices (BTC & LTC) pushed in part by the Chinese exchanges.  Both BTCChina and OKcoin now have higher volume/liquidity than any other market and region on the globe.  To give you an idea of what that competitive niche is like, check out BTC123 and Hao123 (both in Chinese).

Send to Kindle

Why it is impossible to profitably mine bitcoin (BTC) with GPUs — but still quite profitable to mine litecoins (LTC)

I recently had a conversation in which someone asked me to help build them a bitcoin mining machine.  I explained that looking at the mining configuration hash rates, they should not bother unless they had access to a new ASIC miner.

The problem is even if they do not have to pay for electricity (e.g., it is “free” somehow) the difficulty rating is rising so fast (double digits at every adjustment) that even a top of the line ATI GPU is equivalent to “old school” CPU mining at this point.  They would get mere fractions of BTC even if they set up two or three ATI 7970s.

For example, check out this bitcoin mining profitability calculator and plug in the numbers… only gigahash (and now terahash) producing ASICs will get anything useful out of it.

A souped-up, overclocked Radeon 7970 will do around 700 Mhash/s for BTC.  So let’s say you connect three of the best Sapphire Vapor-X, they are listed at $440 a piece.  Factor in the rest of the system (cheap hard drive, ram, cpu, stable power supply, milk crate) and you are pushing at least $1,700 yet only producing 2100 Mhash/s.

Plug that into the calculator, the break even will be >10,000 days because you are only mining 0.0017 BTC a day.  Assuming you did it for 365 days and the rating difficulty didn’t increase (which it does at double digits every reset) you would end up with 0.6205 BTC in one year.  But again, this wouldn’t happen, more than likely you would get less 0.1 BTC the first year.  And nothing at all the year after.  Why?  Click here to see the visualization of the bitcoin difficulty rating this past year.

Again, you would be much more profitable mining Litecoin, for example, if we use that same system you would end up doing about 2100 KHash/s and generate about 1.42 LTC / day (here is a litecoin estimation calculator).  Note: LTC mining is extremely memory intensive, hence the substantially fewer hash/sec.

But even then, this would decline as the difficulty rating increases each reset.  Best case scenario, that rig would get about 400 LTC/year.  The highest a LTC has sold for thus far this year has been about $20, so you could earn $8,000 in a year (assuming you sold the coins and didn’t save or reinvest them).

Thus, it is far more profitable to mine LTC than BTC.

But let’s go back to the 0.0017 BTC you would make if you set up that system today.  Even in the rosiest of conditions, where one BTC was worth $1 million, .1 would be $100k, .01 would be worth $10k and .001 would be worth $1k.

Therefore, even in the most optimal scenario, there is no GPU solution that is profitable mining BTC, even if the electrical costs were free.

Send to Kindle

One litecoin now worth more than one ounce of silver

Today, for the first time, one litecoin sold for more than one ounce of silver on the exchanges.

On Okcoin it is 132 RMB ($21.38) and on BTC-e it is $20.10 — versus the spot price of silver that is just around $20.

This of course is merely coincidental symbolism but this also begins the countdown until one BTC (~$860) passes one ounce of gold ($1255).

Wonder how long it will take either to surpass the inflation-adjusted historical record of both?

Send to Kindle

Science & Technology Roundup: #2

Lots of interesting research and discoveries the past 10 days:

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #53

No big business news again this past week, but several interesting stories and anecdotes.  Thanks to James M, Suzanne F and Sinocism for a couple links.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #52

Bitcoin was the hot topic this past week, hitting an all-time high at around 7,000 RMB two days ago which is more than $1,100.  It has since dropped by more than half.

Send to Kindle

Stat of the day: animation in China

Apparently animation companies receive lots of preferential treatment and subsidies which had unintended consequences, from HuXiu:

In 2011, China produced more than 260,000-minutes-long tv episodes of animation, which is 180,000 minutes more than Japan, the second biggest animation-output country of the world. In 2012, a total of 117-thousand-hours-long animation was aired in China.

[…]

As a result, fake companies and fake projects arise in the animation industry, taking advantage of the favorable policies by enjoying the generous subsidies while contribute nothing. More than 30 animation festivals were planned in eight months, and more than 20 cities claim they are working on becoming “the City of Animation (动漫之都)”.

Send to Kindle

Science & Technology Roundup: #1

In addition to reading Asia-related business I typically read through a number of online periodicals regarding science and technology topics.  While this is a side hobby some readers may be interested in this segment as well.  Feel free to send me stories as some of you have with China.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #51

No big business stories (since nothing changed during the Plenum) but the one-child policy is officially being reformed and several foreign sites have been blocked (the Chinese version of Reuters and the Wall Street Journal).  Only official criticism allowed…

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #50

The story about LEGO below is very interesting, I briefly mention them in my book but their growth has even surprised my optimism in that segment.  The censorship posts about Weibo are very sobering too.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #49

3rd Plenum has ended but no specific reforms have been publicized yet.  Par for the course.  And Single’s Day (11-11) broke more e-commerce records.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #48

Probably the most important story for most foreigners out here is the coming stagnation of the EFL industry, see the WSJ article below for more details.

Thanks to Sinocism for several links:

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #47

The WSJ article below about EFL education is very sobering to anyone wanting to get involved in that area as the segment may decrease in size in the long-run due to institutional changes at the city and provincial level.

Thanks to James M and Sinocism for a few of the links.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #46

I’m surprised that there have not been any overseas initiatives to work with local match-makers to help the 30-40 million single men in China of “marriage age” (and who will not be able to find a local bride due to a lack of available numbers)?  While that may have been a crazy idea just 10 years ago, in the age of Weixin and OK Cupid, it may just be a matter of time for laonei and laowai to become better acquainted.

Thanks to Peter J and Sinocism for a couple links.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #45

I am in the process of packing and moving so not many comments right now, a few interesting stories.  By the way, if you do plan to live in China for any length of time, 58.com is pretty useful for buying/selling directly from others (like Craig’s List).

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #44

A wide variety of news over the past week, I think the biggest business opportunity listed below is with elderly care and “old age” homes.  But that would probably be at the top of the market segment because most cannot afford it (even if they can culturally accept it).

Thanks to Kevin S and Sinocism for many of the links:

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #43

Several interesting stories, including a nugget about upcoming college entrance requirements and the removal of English as a requirement (see the Xinhua story below).  According to that story is this stat:

The Ministry of Education says that there are 50,000 companies specializing in English training, with the value of the market estimated at 30 billion yuan (almost 5 billion U.S. dollars).

Thanks to James M and Sinocism for some of the links:

Send to Kindle

The world’s second language: English

Over the past few days I’ve had talks with a couple of business people regarding EFL opportunities in China.  While there are still many (see Chapter 9), I think entrepreneurs should be aware that there is global demand for this language.

Several years ago Jay Walker gave a short TED presentation that highlights the fact that there are around 2 billion English learners globally now.  While he doesn’t cite sources he probably drew it from the British Council which publishes a similar number on its website (or perhaps it was from research done by David Graddol).

For more information about teaching and demand, be sure to check out Dave’s ESL and Angelina’s ESL.

Send to Kindle

Bitcoin in China: Fall Edition

I’ve discussed BTC and cryptocurrencies and their adoption in China before (here), time for a quick update.

A local channel out here called International Channel Shanghai (ICS) recently broadcast an English-based profile of BTC (and LTC) on its program called Money Talks (click here to watch it).

Overall its a fairly in-depth and accurate explanation of Bitcoin and doesn’t really devolve too much into scaremongering (though it does talk about all of the risks/regulations in the US and elsewhere).

According to the show there are now 14 exchange sites on the mainland that have been set up in the past 2 years (the two it mentions are BTCChina and 796.com).

The show found a professor (Yang Qing) at Fudan here in Shanghai who thinks that the government will be hands off for now because the overall market is very small.

They also interviewed another professor who errs as to why Bitcoin is not money: because there is no physical army backing it up.

Again, it is about 20 minutes and does a decent job of presenting it to the audience without fearmongering.  (FWIW, Bobby Lee, the CEO of BTCChina is the brother of Charles Lee, the creator of LTC who is over at Coinbase now, see this recent Wired profile on him).  Lastly, Jesús Huerta de Soto is name dropped at the end; for those of you unfamiliar with him, he’s an economist who has written a number of books on banking policies, credit and finance.

Send to Kindle

Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #42

Some opportunities around for real estate developers in the new free trade zone being developed in Shanghai.  And if you manufacture air filters, the northern areas (especially Dongbei) would probably have a lot of potential customers (see these photos).  Thanks to Angela X and Sinocism for some of the links.

Send to Kindle

If it works, you apparently cannot complain… “How to become the president of China”

So much propaganda squeezed into 6 minutes.  Nothing is mentioned about the powerful families, regional cliques or special interest groups that work behind the scenes to get their relatives or friends up the chain.  Or the amount of bribery (hongbao) needed to initially obtain any position in government (the going price in small towns is 50,000 RMB).

Send to Kindle