Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #46

I’m surprised that there have not been any overseas initiatives to work with local match-makers to help the 30-40 million single men in China of “marriage age” (and who will not be able to find a local bride due to a lack of available numbers)?  While that may have been a crazy idea just 10 years ago, in the age of Weixin and OK Cupid, it may just be a matter of time for laonei and laowai to become better acquainted.

Thanks to Peter J and Sinocism for a couple links.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #45

I am in the process of packing and moving so not many comments right now, a few interesting stories.  By the way, if you do plan to live in China for any length of time, 58.com is pretty useful for buying/selling directly from others (like Craig’s List).

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #44

A wide variety of news over the past week, I think the biggest business opportunity listed below is with elderly care and “old age” homes.  But that would probably be at the top of the market segment because most cannot afford it (even if they can culturally accept it).

Thanks to Kevin S and Sinocism for many of the links:

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #43

Several interesting stories, including a nugget about upcoming college entrance requirements and the removal of English as a requirement (see the Xinhua story below).  According to that story is this stat:

The Ministry of Education says that there are 50,000 companies specializing in English training, with the value of the market estimated at 30 billion yuan (almost 5 billion U.S. dollars).

Thanks to James M and Sinocism for some of the links:

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The world’s second language: English

Over the past few days I’ve had talks with a couple of business people regarding EFL opportunities in China.  While there are still many (see Chapter 9), I think entrepreneurs should be aware that there is global demand for this language.

Several years ago Jay Walker gave a short TED presentation that highlights the fact that there are around 2 billion English learners globally now.  While he doesn’t cite sources he probably drew it from the British Council which publishes a similar number on its website (or perhaps it was from research done by David Graddol).

For more information about teaching and demand, be sure to check out Dave’s ESL and Angelina’s ESL.

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Bitcoin in China: Fall Edition

I’ve discussed BTC and cryptocurrencies and their adoption in China before (here), time for a quick update.

A local channel out here called International Channel Shanghai (ICS) recently broadcast an English-based profile of BTC (and LTC) on its program called Money Talks (click here to watch it).

Overall its a fairly in-depth and accurate explanation of Bitcoin and doesn’t really devolve too much into scaremongering (though it does talk about all of the risks/regulations in the US and elsewhere).

According to the show there are now 14 exchange sites on the mainland that have been set up in the past 2 years (the two it mentions are BTCChina and 796.com).

The show found a professor (Yang Qing) at Fudan here in Shanghai who thinks that the government will be hands off for now because the overall market is very small.

They also interviewed another professor who errs as to why Bitcoin is not money: because there is no physical army backing it up.

Again, it is about 20 minutes and does a decent job of presenting it to the audience without fearmongering.  (FWIW, Bobby Lee, the CEO of BTCChina is the brother of Charles Lee, the creator of LTC who is over at Coinbase now, see this recent Wired profile on him).  Lastly, Jesús Huerta de Soto is name dropped at the end; for those of you unfamiliar with him, he’s an economist who has written a number of books on banking policies, credit and finance.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #42

Some opportunities around for real estate developers in the new free trade zone being developed in Shanghai.  And if you manufacture air filters, the northern areas (especially Dongbei) would probably have a lot of potential customers (see these photos).  Thanks to Angela X and Sinocism for some of the links.

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If it works, you apparently cannot complain… “How to become the president of China”

So much propaganda squeezed into 6 minutes.  Nothing is mentioned about the powerful families, regional cliques or special interest groups that work behind the scenes to get their relatives or friends up the chain.  Or the amount of bribery (hongbao) needed to initially obtain any position in government (the going price in small towns is 50,000 RMB).

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Stat of the day: Chinese tourism abroad

According to Chasing the Chinese Tourist Yuan from The Wall Street Journal:

But in the aggregate, Chinese tourists have now passed Germans and Americans to become the biggest spenders abroad. About half of the 83 million Chinese who traveled outside the mainland in 2012 spent more than $5,000 per trip, according to British payment processor WorldPay.

[…]

Chinese authorities expect the number of travelers going overseas to hit 100 million next year. But that will still leave 93% of the population at home—potential travelers. The travel industry, hoping that the number of Chinese travelers keeps climbing, is preparing to serve the next wave.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #41

A few stories from the past couple of days.  The free-trade zone mania seems like a positive trend, here is hoping that the entire country is eventually turned into one free-trade zone instead of the hodge podge of a million fiefdoms.  Thanks to Kevin S and Sinocism for some of the links.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #40

If you want to run a standardized test taking center in Hong Kong or South Korea, you could probably make a bundle the next few years.  Or if you know how to setup trust funds, you can probably help the “new” rich figure out how to emulate Western families and their wealth management strategies.  Thanks to Sinocism for some of the links.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #39

As I have told my younger Chinese friends who are looking to start their own sport companies, I recommend trying to get into sports that are very popular outside of China that are currently not popular here (e.g., Cricket, Rugby, Ice Hockey).  See the Cricket story below.  Thanks to James M and Sinocism for links.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition #38

This is a combination of news from the last two days as well as the first days of the summer.  For those in the alternative education industry and training sector, there may be opportunities to tap into a growing customer base dissatisfied with the traditional education system (see links below).  Also recommend reading that petro article from FT at the very bottom.  Thanks to Matt L and James M for some of the links.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XXXVII

Because the business news cycle was very slow in China this past summer, many of these links are a couple months old but their stories are very relevant today.  A few stories involve other Asian countries.  Special thanks to James M and Sinocism.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XXXVI

Mostly China-related news from the past couple of weeks.  Special thanks to James M, Michael T and of course Sinocism.com.

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How to do business in China: Small and Medium Enterprise Edition

I had lunch today with a former colleague of mine at the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai.  He noted that after a lot of sweat and coding, the new SME Center site is up.

Based on my own interactions at the SME center (I had several friends that worked on the team over the past year), I highly recommend the information for entrepreneurs and managers of SMEs.  Be sure to check out the FAQ section first.

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Stat of the day – Starbucks in China

According to a recent USA Today report:

Early next year, China will replace Canada as the global coffee giant’s second-largest market, where Starbucks plans to open its 1,000th store sometime before the end of 2013. As it expands in China – where Starbucks announced the opening of two iconic, flagship stores on Monday – Starbucks is experimenting both with the interior and exterior designs of its new stores in a bid to appeal to Chinese customers.

[…]

For Starbucks, it’s all about tapping into growth markets with room to run. The chain, which has more than 12,000 U.S. locations, now views China as its biggest growth market, which can help it taper the pace of domestic growth. By the end of this year, Starbucks will have 4,000 locations across China and Asia Pacific, says Culver.

See also Chapters 2 & 16 regarding the food and beverage industry.

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Stat of the day – Robots in China

From The Economic Observer this past week according to Akira Mizutani of Yaskawa Electric Corporation:

“The total sale of robots in China last year was 28,000 units. It will be about 30,000 this year. And it’s going to continue to grow by 20 to 30 percent a year for for quite a while.”

[…]

Wang Feiyue (王飞跃), director of China’s State Key Laboratory of Management and Control for Complex Systems (SKL-MCCS), says that for every 10,000 manufacturing workers in Japan, 300 robots are used — whereas in China that number is just 10. So there’s a huge potential market for robots in China, the widespread use of which will improve the country’s overall manufacturing level.

See also robots discussed in Chapter 7.

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Publishing games in China

A couple weeks ago I had dinner with a large group of IT/engineers in eastern Shanghai and was fortunate to sit next to an online gaming developer who had previously worked at ATI.

We chatted about a number of topics but continued to circle around the gaming industry in China.  Some quick numbers, last year the gaming industry on the mainland generated $9.7 billion in revenue.  This number continues to grow as roughly $5.1 billion was spent in the first half of 2013 in the online game market.  Thus as mentioned in Chapter 14, there is a lot of potential for new projects and even businesses in this segment.

What kind of Western games are particularly popular in China?  While online RPGs such as World of Warcraft are still popular on the mainland others such as League of Legends and DOTA (which are in a new genre called MOBAs) are also quite popular.  Some of my Chinese friends also play casual games based on Farmville-esque styles from Team Lava (such as Fashion Story and Castle Story).

One notable up-and-coming (re)release is Guild Wars 2.  It was originally published last fall in North America and Europe but its official Chinese release is not expected until later this year.  This is due to a couple of issues including legal issues that require a joint-venture be formed in the process and a screening of content.  So for example, in 2010 when Blizzard wanted to (re)publish WoW in China, it was required to team up with a local company to co-publish it and Blizzard also had to censor/revise its content to meet guidelines (e.g., removal of skeletons/zombies).  See this older news account for more info.

See also: A Closer Look at 4 Online Gaming Companies in China from The Motley Fool and China: The gaming superpower continues to march West from Games Industry International

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Off the beaten track in Puxi

A few weeks ago I went to Ocean World near Zhongshan Park in Changning district.  It was a fairly new aquarium, well-kept and apparently French-owned.  I recommend it for families, though it is a tad pricey (around ~160 rmb).

A couple nights ago I went to the House of Blues & Jazz near The Bund.  I do not recommend it for anyone.  The seating was completely cramped (sardine style), the management was quite pretentious and the food was ridiculously overpriced (112 rmb for a small cheese platter).  Worst of all, there is a 50 rmb cover charge per person and the band doesn’t start playing until after 10pm.  So if you don’t like their tunes you’re too far away to catch the last subway home and thus will spend even more on a taxi.

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XXXV

While there is a plethora of bearish news there may be opportunities for real-estate agents in the US (and elsewhere) to sell homes to Chinese looking to invest or live abroad (two links below about that).  Figuring out the e-book market may have some opportunities still but that seem like a tough nut to crack (despite the big investments).  Also, if you have experience in M&A perhaps you can figure out how to get some of the low performing steel SOEs to merge…

Thanks to James and Sinocism for several links:

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Another Brick in the Wall: Link Edition XXXIV

If you’re an experienced bond manager perhaps you may find new opportunities in Shandong and Jiangsu (see the last link).  And if you want to get involved in the TCM export business, look at the CER article as well.

Thanks to James and Sinocism for some of the links:

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What happened with the “cash crunch” in China two weeks ago?

While there have been many explanations for why the People’s Bank of China (temporarily) allowed (easy) credit to dry up, I think Mark DeWeaver has a very plausible and well-reasoned explanation.  Mark wrote the foreword to my book and is the author of Animals Spirits with Chinese Characteristics.

Below is his op-ed published two days ago in The Wall Street Journal.  Be sure to check out his predictions for why this solution probably will not stick:

Beijing’s War on Shadow Banking

China’s central bank cracks down on credit that is not under the government’s control.

On June 20, China’s central bank precipitated a major credit crisis by withholding funds from the nation’s cash-starved banking system. The People’s Bank of China’s refusal to act as liquidity provider of last resort froze lending in the interbank market. Overnight rates, which had been as low as 2.1% in early May, exploded, closing at a record 13.4%.

As rumors swirled about the solvency of China’s state-owned banks, some commentators began talking about a Chinese “Lehman moment.” But the crisis passed and the overnight interbank lending rate quickly came back to earth. By July 4, it had fallen to 3.4%.

Trouble in the interbank market had been brewing since early June, when Beijing began a crackdown on illicit inflows of foreign exchange, previously a major source of growth in the local money supply. The demand for yuan also began rising, as Chinese banks prepared for their June 30 book closings and their customers for their first-half tax payments.

The result was a growing imbalance between the supply of and demand for credit. As rumored large-scale interventions by the People’s Bank of China repeatedly failed to materialize, commercial banks realized they would have to fend for themselves. Lenders hoarded cash to guard against potential counterparty defaults, and the normal flow of funds among financial institutions quickly dried up.

The central bank’s immediate objective seems to have been to rein in China’s “shadow banking” system, which has grown rapidly in recent years and now accounts for a significant share of total Chinese credit. Shadow banking in China involves lightly regulated products that allow savers to earn more than the official deposit rate while providing financing for “subprime” borrowers.

Generally the funding is relatively short-term, which makes the business highly sensitive to liquidity conditions. Shadow lenders require inflows of new money to pay off maturing obligations. These typically come either directly from the banks—for example, via their “wealth management products”—or from entities with access to bank financing such as state-owned enterprises.

There may be a larger political game going on. The People’s Bank of China is not an independent central bank, so the order to turn off the credit spigot must have come directly from the Politburo. The central bank’s surprise attack on bank credit must therefore be understood in the context of the leadership’s current focus on improving economic efficiency. This objective will be impossible to achieve unless the central government can overcome resistance from the powerful local interests that benefit from the status quo. The Politburo’s goal may have been to starve opponents of reform into submission.

Local governments appear to be the central bank’s real targets, because they rely heavily on shadow financing to subvert Beijing’s reform initiatives. Shadow funds flow directly into local government projects that the central government views as wasteful, and the funds benefit localities indirectly by pushing up land prices. As long as this money keeps flowing, over-investment in infrastructure, heavy industry and real estate will continue unchecked and Beijing’s vision of a new economy driven mainly by consumer demand and productivity growth will be impossible to realize.

The credit crunch occurred a few days after the launch of the Communist Party’s new “mass line” campaign, which seeks to make the party more sensitive to the needs of the people by circumventing official government and party hierarchies. This idea goes back to Mao Zedong, for whom the goal was to realize “democratic centralism” and bypass bureaucratic factions that threatened his agenda. Going directly to the “masses” was a way to attack the opposition from the outside—to “bombard the headquarters” in a famous slogan of the Cultural Revolution era.

In Mao’s time, bombarding the headquarters meant unleashing a reign of terror. Today the leadership has turned to less violent means. The central bank’s strike against shadow banking will undermine today’s vested interests in a way that Mao could scarcely have imagined—simply by cutting off their financing.

There are two problems with this approach. First, the central bank’s policy will result in considerable collateral damage. Small- and medium-size private firms will be particularly hard hit. They tend to be ineligible for bank loans and often depend on shadow financing to make ends meet.

Second, attacking anti-reform factions will not be enough to generate real reform. Without radical changes in the economic role of local governments, they will quickly return to business as usual once the fallout has cleared.

The People’s Bank of China may have won a battle, but the Politburo is far from winning the war.

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